According to Eric Balchunas, after a 122% gain last year for Bitcoin (BTC), a flat performance the following year is acceptable and should not alarm traders, implying a consolidation phase after outsized returns (Source: Eric Balchunas on X, Dec 11, 2025). According to Eric Balchunas, he frames expectations with probabilities, noting each NFL team has roughly a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl and 6% to reach it, highlighting that exceptional outcomes are low-probability and not annual, a mindset traders can apply to BTC return expectations (Source: Eric Balchunas on X, Dec 11, 2025).